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Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 11:34am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Thanks for the support.  Goozok represents what statisticians call the "outlier".  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier 

The vast majority of the player stats here show that the formula is indeed working correctly.  The typical problem faced in galcon game data is a player who doe NOT have enough opponents played to calculate stats to a significantly trustworthy level.  The formula I'm using here takes that uncertainty into consideration in its calculations.  Goozok, on the other hand, represents the other end of that spectrum - by having so many opponents played, he's pushing the formula hard in the other direction.

The problem is in finding a way to deal with both ends of this problem without altering the results for the vast majority of players who fit right into the middle of this formula.  I found the way to deal with the low end side of things, but have not yet figured out how to deal with the higher end problem.
post updated on Mar 24, 2011 @ 11:34am
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 11:38am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

btw..  I did some testing on my local database to see what the results would be of my previous idea of using the Over/Under number.  It helped, but not nearly enough.  Goozok dropped from #8 to #22.  Not enough of a drop to make the change worth implementing.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 2:14pm

Cabin Boy esparano

Joined: Nov 5, 2009
Posts: 2511

Hmm.. try using a square root/log/etc. function or something like that on the number of opponents and games, so that people with a low amount of games will still have low scores, but people like goozok can't abuse the system just by playing a ridiculous amount. This might help the situation on both extremes. Since field and mastery both individually take into account the number of opponents, somebody who plays a lot gets an exponential benefit.. (goozok)
post updated on Mar 24, 2011 @ 2:16pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 3:44pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Good suggestion.  

I think what I'll need to do is something similar to what I did for the Mastery number.  

Mastery % = (100 * (Number of Opponents * Games Played) / Total Game Count At This Rank)

But then I CAP the number it comes back with at 100.  Otherwise, playing lots of games can give you numbers ABOVE 100 very easily.

I basically only want it to reach a certain threshold (i.e. 100%) then ignore anything above that as being unnecessary.  Mastery is about making sure the Win % is trustworthy or not and that is it's only purpose, so numbers above the threshold for determining that, can be disregarded.  

I think I need to find a way to do the same thing for the Field rating.

Field % = (100 * (Number of Opponents / Total Opponents Possible at this Rank))

So I need to add a multiplier to the Number of Opponents (possibly this Over/Under number) so that it would be possible for the math to end up above 100 sometimes as well.  Then Cap it at 100 like I do for the Mastery %.

Essentially, I want it to reach a threshold, then ignore anything above it.  THAT should do away with the "goozok problem" once and for all.
post updated on Mar 24, 2011 @ 3:50pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 6:32pm

Ensign diebkstabber

Joined: Dec 2, 2009
Posts: 700
Location: under my bed

Haha yes the " goozok problem" I like it!!

You'll go down in history like Einstein. 

THEE FAMOUS JAZZ REPAIRER OF THE GOOZOK PROBLEM
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 24, 2011 @ 7:38pm

Cabin Boy esparano

Joined: Nov 5, 2009
Posts: 2511

It seems pretty difficult to reach 100% mastery though.. Has anybody ever gotten over 100% yet? Plus, if you did cap it, it could take months or years before a lot of people reach that same cap.. like it would be fair once everybody reached the cap, but until then, goozok and others will still be way ahead. 

edit: it seems that some people have reached 100% in several categories, but it still took a lot of games. My highest is 36% in 2v2 three-stripes, but that is with hundreds of games..
post updated on Mar 24, 2011 @ 7:42pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 9:38pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Yes!  By golly, I think I've got it!  [he exclaimed gleefully]

I need to let it run a little longer on my dev machine to verify all is good...  but soon you will be witnessing a much improved formula in the Leader Boards.  =)

Top 10 2v2 players:
IonizedFire
wallplant
zmar01
matty
esparano
im.a.girl
Steve.Jobs
diebkstabber
strangelove
pwn.myself
post updated on Mar 25, 2011 @ 9:43pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 9:44pm

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

What did you change?
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 10:27pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

do you want math or paragraphs of text describing it!  lol  :)

OverUnder
- Can only be a positive number
- may not be larger then the OpponentCount 

Mastery
((@GameCount / (@OpponentCount + @OverUnder)) + (100 * (@OpponentCount + @OverUnder) / @GameCount) + @WinPercent) / 3 

Goal: to remain within a reasonable range for all players.  This formula makes it so that not one single tactic (lots of games, lots of opponents or playing above your skill level) effects the outcome very much due to the averaging of all 3 tactics together.

Field
- same logic as before: 
100 * (@OpponentCount / @RankTotalPlayerCount)
I enforce a Max of 100 and Min of 1

Skill
@OverUnder + (@Field * @Mastery * @WinPercent) / 10000;

This results in a very nice bell curve of numbers ranging from 1.0000 on up.  Highest numbers peaking around the ranks you are strongest in (due to the OverUnder number being highest in those areas).  This gives a perfect boost to the Score numbers in those areas.

and finally...

Score
@WinPercent * @Rank * @Rank * @Rank * @Skill

I had to boost the Rank over the WinPercent due to several aliases being listed above higher win percent players.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 10:53pm

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

Whoa that's...complicated lol.  Thanks though haha. Cool stuff.  We'll see how this works out the next days
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 11:08pm

Admiral quantum

Joined: May 19, 2010
Posts: 454
Location: Every(No)where @ once.

Sure, I start out number 1, but now not even top ten :-(
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 11:32pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

lol  your #14  =)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 25, 2011 @ 11:37pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Ok, you should all start seeing the new ranks within about 30 minutes from now.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 1:02am

Cabin Boy zmar01

Joined: Jun 6, 2009
Posts: 655

Sounds like you managed to reduce the effect of the number of games played. Averaging. Well it works :)

I went from rank 32 to like 3

I don't know if you noticed but ionized fire was like the only person in the top 20 who hadn't played 5000 games. 
Obviously you would have expected better players to play more games. If you included every game they play. 
But the total of my 1v1 + 2v2 games = less than 1500
I found myself losing ranks to worse players with more games. 
What my idea was say your rank system gave you 1000 for something to fo with games played and 1000 for win%
that's 1/2 your score dependent on that. 
X 0.9 
makes it 900:1000
so less of your score is games played.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 3:01am

Admiral dejo22888

Joined: Mar 27, 2009
Posts: 98

Cool stuff Jazz. This makes me wanna play iGalcon more often. Would be cool if you could do the same for Galcon Fusion! :)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 8:40am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

OK, new stats are now showing up properly. 

Let me know if you notice any problems.  There may still be some individual game data that hasn't made it into the new system yet.  I've been running database cleanup processes for the past 12 hours or so, and it could take another couple of hours before it finishes.
post updated on Mar 26, 2011 @ 8:48am
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 9:39am

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

Hmm looks good, cause goozok dropped from #8 to # 217 lol. Poor goozok...
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 10:25am

Cabin Boy esparano

Joined: Nov 5, 2009
Posts: 2511

lol if he ever comes to the forum he's going to hate us all^

cool stats jazz, whatever you did to the skill category really seems to be working now. Before, everybody had 1.00 for skill, unless they played a bazillion games, then it started to rise up rapidly.  Now, it ranges from 1.01 to 25+.. I like it
post updated on Mar 26, 2011 @ 10:26am
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 12:49pm

Cabin Boy zmar01

Joined: Jun 6, 2009
Posts: 655

Lol backstabber is not going to be happy either.

http://toomanywheres.com/galcon/LeaderBoard.aspx?type=2v2_2p 


jazz next to where it says 


1v1 - Free For All: 1 vs 1

http://toomanywheres.com/galcon/LeaderBoard.aspx?alias=diebkstabber 

Do you think you could put the rank next to it, so for me

1v1 - Free For All: 1 vs 1 [26]


(26th)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 26, 2011 @ 3:00pm

Admiral quantum

Joined: May 19, 2010
Posts: 454
Location: Every(No)where @ once.

I still reserve the record as first GA with the enhanced stats ;-)

I haven't been playing much lately, because Hawaii is crazy lately, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, radiation... Cramping my Galcon time!

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