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Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 7, 2011 @ 5:31pm

Cabin Boy zmar01

Joined: Jun 6, 2009
Posts: 655

High win% vs players with high win%

that means that a player is better. So should be ranked higher. 

Scrap all this skill uncertainty mastery business. 

A good galcon player beats galcon players who beat galcon players. 

Run that basic idea through the stats more than once and you will cone out with the player who is most likely going to beat good players on top. 

Basicly a modification on phils ranks. 

But if you are ever going to make a decent ranking system you have to forget about phils ranks completly. Ignore them start from scratch.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 7, 2011 @ 5:39pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

It wouldn't make sense to base the new leaderboard off of the old leaderboard.


I've been thinking about that problem a bit as well.  I totally agree with being independent of Phil's system.  Right now, this Leader Board is based of Phil's original ranks and formulas.  But going independent poses a problem of practicality which needs to be addressed when doing so....  namely, how do you integrate them after you separate them?  How do you make it relevant in-game without Phil's support and active participation?  As we know from years of experience, Phil is not a big fan of change.  So, how do we make a separate ranking system that appeals to lots of people and doesn't dive off the cliff of "meaningless to everyone except these 5 people"?
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 7, 2011 @ 5:54pm

Cabin Boy esparano

Joined: Nov 5, 2009
Posts: 2466

hmm.  Well you could use that "conservative skill" that I was talking about earlier.  But either way, the ranks will become much much much more accurate after a few months have gone by.

And we don't really need Phil or anything, the program just need the stats from everyone's matches. If the program gathers stats constantly and stores them, it should be fine.


I think it would be very useful to have leaderboards for different periods of time, if possible.  Like a recent leaderboard and an all-time leaderboard.
post updated on Mar 7, 2011 @ 6:05pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 7, 2011 @ 6:25pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

One last point I want to make here.  

This Leader Board is about Relative Ranks, not Absolute Ranks.  Absolute Ranks are what we have now in Phils system where thresholds are defined and need to be met.  Relative ranks are defined by their being no set boundaries at all other then those your fellow opponents create for you.  Relative Ranking therefore, requires validation of your skills against those moving thresholds.  There is no threshold to meet which says you are "good" in a Relative based ranking system other then the thresholds created by the players themselves.  This alone requires comparison and proof of skill.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 8, 2011 @ 1:11am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

I have finally fixed the 2v2 bug.  The ranks should take a few hours from now to show the difference.
post updated on Mar 8, 2011 @ 1:14am
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 8, 2011 @ 11:13am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

2 v 2 ranks now updated. Only moderate shifts seen, nothing drastic. 

I now need to verify that non 2v2 modes weren't adversely affected in the process. 

Ipcress, looks like your a 3 striper. :)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 8, 2011 @ 12:52pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Other game types all look fine!  All game types are now error free!

Other then finding a place to show the 2v2_3P and 2v2_2P modes...  I can now safely say...  the Leader Board is Complete!

It takes roughly 9 hours to import 12 hours of game data, and roughly 1 hour to refresh the Leader Board stats for all game types.

There is probably some more I can do to streamline the import process to make it faster, but for now, the pressure to just get it working is off.  ;)  

Personally speaking...  I couldn't be happier with the results.  The tweaking of the formula has improved its accuracy, and it seems to be placing the right people at the top.

I'm now going to let it build up a nice history of game data for a while, as I work on the charts and graphs side of things.  This is fun!  :)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 8, 2011 @ 12:59pm

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

Nice job jazz :)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 9:01am

Cabin Boy rebelxt

Joined: Dec 27, 2008
Posts: 42

Hey Jazz, help me understand why your current ranking algorithm placed me in the 2nd place in 1v1 (which automatically results in GA rank due to 0.25% threshold). just curious what formula is used at the moment for 1v1.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 10:37am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Sure.

http://toomanywheres.com/galcon/LeaderBoard.aspx?alias=RebelXT 

http://toomanywheres.com/galcon/LeaderBoard.aspx?alias=matty 

You have played 3 GA's 1 on 1 and maintained a winning percentage of 44%.  Matty has played 1 GA with a 25% winning percent.  So on that alone, it looks like you would be above him right?  Well...  Matty has also played 11 three stripes with a 50% winning average over 300 games played, while yours is 55% against 7 three stripes over 54 games played.  The formula determines that Matty's average is more accurate due to the games played so lends it more weight in the Score.  Also, the difference between your 7 foes and Matty's 11 foes at the 3 stripe level can make a huge difference in the Field rating.

This boosts his score against 3 stripes much higher then yours.  The Ranking is determined by adding up each score from all 10 flags.  

So basically, play more 3 stripes and you'll go up in to first place.  :)
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 10:58am

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

What exactly is defined in your program as going against a 3 stripe?  Like I faced matty while he was a yellow flag for 20 games or so, then played matty 20 more games when he was GA, but I still have no 'stat's against GA's. So how does that work? I'm just curious.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 11:12am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

It uses the in-game flag of the opponent as the indicator of what flag to place the win/loss in. It does not look back in history to get the highest flag that opponent achieved... Though that's not a bad idea. 

Are you saying it's not registering your games against Matty as a GA?  I'll need to research that one.
post updated on Mar 9, 2011 @ 11:58am
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 11:51am

Cabin Boy zmar01

Joined: Jun 6, 2009
Posts: 655

Ahh, why are you basing so many of your stats against phil's ranks?

Try this.

You have a flag system thing, now try and implement my idea on top of yours.

on yours 0.25% are GA.

Well make it so high GA win% gives you a higher score, no matter the rank.

Then with those scores make a separate leader board.

Make it so score is only added, 10% against pink flags still increases your score.

then maybe for each rank you can do that whole game uncertainty where the more games you play against that rank still maintaining win% gives you more points ect.

This will make it so the higher ranked players are ranked further away from the lower ranked players in score ratios.

and will change around players who have not got a good win% against the higher ranks, this will be a disadvantage to good players who have not had the chance to play good ranked players. Or have gotten unlucky in the few games they have played.

So make a minimum weight and if they dont meet that minimum weight chuck in a predicted score just to keep early ranks fairish

Say 50% vs blue, 45 vs 1 stripe 40 vs 2 stripe 35 vs 3 stripe 30% vs GA

Seems fair as a GA would be expected to get 70% overall win%.

This just means people who have not played as many games dont get lower scores.

And for now dont make my idea such a bigger part of the ranks, because it does rely on people playing other people.




Anyway another reason why i dont like you using phil's ranks is because phil's ranks relies on people getting high win% against people with high win%, eg. 55%vs 3 stripes gets GA.

What you do is use phil's ranks and skip the whole high win% against high win% bit because in a mathematical equation that works.

I know what im suggesting is similar to phils ranking system but with numbers rather than ranks.

But it works, and the beauty of it is the more you run it through the stats the more accurate it becomes.




Jazz, please upload some of your raw stats into something like an excell file, who beat who on 2v2.

thats all i want.

I dont want it updating i dont want your program. I just want to play around with raw stats. but i cant as i cant simply import stat dump into excell. 

And your stat database has more stats in it than the stat dump now doesnt it?
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 12:13pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

I don't like using Phils in-game ranks either.  Over the next couple of weeks I want to try and substitute in-game ranks with this leader boards ranks for a player instead.  Especially since this leader board is over a longer duration, it should help stabilize the whole thing a lot!

I do like you idea Zmar, I really do.  But I don't believe Galcon has EVER had a true Relative Based Ranking system in its entire history.  This will be its first as far as I can tell.  And I'm going to try my hardest to keep it that way.

I think people here dislike it because it is so dependent on quantity of people played.  But I would like to throw out a challenge to all those naysayers out there...

Player A has a 70% win percentage against 10 GA's
Player B has a 70% win percentage against 11 GA's

Which one is the better player?

In a system designed from the ground up to be Relatively ranked, rather then Threshold ranked, the player who plays 11 GA's is going to be higher ranked.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 12:14pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

I'll see about providing an excel data dump like Phil does...
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 12:40pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Ion,

The games are in the system, but I think I found a bug which might prevent them from showing up.  

I manually ran an update against your's and Matty's profiles and they are now showing up properly.  

Will need to find the root cause of this one and fix it however.  I THINK that over time, it would have self corrected.  See, it only updates the overall stats when it imports a game and then only those stats for the specific flags you played against in that game.  During my work fixing the 2v2 ranks (around the 7th and 8th) I "cleaned up" the stats a bit to correct historical inaccuracies that had accumulated due to the 2v2 bug.  So, if you had played any GA AFTER I had done that, it would have self-corrected.

I'll run a longer refresh of all the stats later tonight so it will correct everyones numbers.
post updated on Mar 9, 2011 @ 12:45pm
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 2:43pm

Cabin Boy ionizedfire

Joined: May 25, 2009
Posts: 177

Sweetness.  Thanks.

Sorry, one more question related to this.

If I play 10 total games against matty while he's yellow, and play 10 total games against matty while he's GA, does that count as 1 foe in the yellow rank column and 1 foe in the GA rank column?
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 9, 2011 @ 2:46pm

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Yes.  That is correct.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 10, 2011 @ 3:12am

2 Stripe Admiral fifty6

Joined: Apr 22, 2009
Posts: 112
Location: galcon.tinny.net.au

I don't get how this works but it's looks really cool ! 
great job.
Re: Official Stat Warriors Leader Board :: Mar 10, 2011 @ 4:20am

Cabin Boy jazz

Joined: Feb 20, 2009
Posts: 534
Location: aka The_Musician

Thanks Fifty6!

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